Saturday, August 13, 2005

MAD AND MULLAHS

Slavoj Zizek thinks there's no reason the Cold War's balance of terror, aka Mutually Assured Destruction, shouldn't apply to Iran if it manages to go nuclear:
As to Iran and nukes, the surprising fact is that the MAD logic still operates today: Why hasn’t the tension between India and Pakistan exploded into an all-out war? Because both sides are nuclear powers. Why have the Arab states not risked another attack on Israel? Because Israel is a nuclear power. So why should this MAD logic not work in the case of Iran? The standard counter-argument is that in Iran, Muslim fundamentalists are in power who may be tempted to nuke Israel. (Iran is the only large Arab state which not only does not diplomatically recognize Israel, but resolutely denies its right to exist as a state). Is, however, the Iranian regime really so “irrational”? Isn’t Pakistan, with its nuclear arms and its secret services’ ties to al-Qaeda, a much greater threat? Furthermore, two decades ago, Iran was brutally attacked by Iraq (with active U.S. support), so it has every right to feel threatened.
The real question is, do we want to trust the Iranian regime to act rationally? You know, what with an infinite supply of virgins waiting for martyrs.

Update: Commenter dirtbikeoption enquires, "Why do you feel that the Iranians will be incapable of understanding the concept of mutually assured destruction?"

It's not that the Iranians don't understand the logic of MAD, it's that their government is willing to martyr the whole population to the glory of Allah. Or so says their president:
"Is there art that is more beautiful, more divine and more eternal than the art of martyrdom? A nation with martyrdom knows no captivity.
Think he's bluffing?

7 Comments:

Anonymous Mine Host said...

Hmmm, Slavoj refers to Iran as an "Arab State". I wonder if everything else in the article is as poorly researched?

9:41 PM  
Anonymous J F Beck said...

The Nietzsche bit is especially good.

9:56 PM  
Anonymous The_Real_JeffS said...

MAD worked because you could usually tell who attacked, by radar more often than not. That's one reason why we went to great lengths to build and operate early warning systems.

Another major piece of the MAD puzzle was to make sure sure your nukes were survivable, hence the "Nuclear Triad" of land, air, and sea based nuclear weapons.

Iran varies from the MAD model because they've already shown the eagerness to use suicide terrorists. Witness the call of the Iranian leadership for volunteers for martyrdom.

Add in the fact that nuclear material need not be weapons grade quality (e.g., a "dirty bomb" can use anything with a decent half life, an excellent terror weapon), and Iran could easily indulge in nuclear terror with minimal fear of a nuclear counterstike.

And what if someone did nuke Iran in retaliation? Iran is developing long range, nuclear capable missiles. Escalation is quite likely, especially given the extremist (and irrational) attitudes of the Iranian leadership.

No, Zizek is full of it. The "Persian State" (good catch, MH!) is not be trusted.

10:11 PM  
Anonymous J F Beck said...

Oh yeah, the whole thing's a crock. My initial inclination was to try to catalog the guy's errors but I'm too lazy for that.

10:26 PM  
Anonymous The_Real_JeffS said...

Crock is right! But this dude won't admit until he sees the whites of their mushroom clouds.

12:19 AM  
Anonymous leftvegdrunk said...

Where did Russian roulette come from, Jeff?

11:45 AM  
Anonymous leftvegdrunk said...

Jeff, I am not suggesting that Soviet leaders exhorted their followers to join suicide groups. I am suggesting that motivating people to die for a political cause (marines, kamikazes, whoever) is not unique to Iranians.

Suggesting that Iranian leaders do not care about the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons is to cast aspersions on the intelligence and compassion - the humanity - of an entire race of people, which incidentally is defined only by an arbitrary international border.

That is the ultimate strawman, mate. "They will use bombs because they aren't like us."

Go back to your list of nuclear-armed countries. Is Iran really culturally unique amongst all those other nations?

6:24 PM  

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