Monday, May 23, 2005

GLOBAL WARMING'S IMPACT ON TOURISM

As we all know, among the adverse effects of Global Warming is a rise in sea level. It is, however, a complex scenario:
The ice sheet covering the interior of Antarctica is thickening, researchers report in the journal Science.

This bulge, which was recorded by satellite, may temporarily buffer rising sea levels, they believe. Antarctica's "weight gain" is due to extra snowfall, caused by rising temperatures, the US-UK team thinks.

However, the scientists worry the overall mass of the Antarctic may be decreasing because ice near the coasts is melting, possibly at a greater rate.
So, the situation is far from clear. But, let's assume for the sake of argument that Global Warming is real and sea level is going to rise. That means this scientific study is pretty much a waste of time and money:
Jacqueline Hamilton at the University of Hamburg in Germany and her colleagues modelled the numbers of tourists visiting 207 countries in 2025. Their analysis included the effects of expected population growth and economic development,and local climate changes predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The model did not include changing sea levels.

By far the largest changes involved developing nations becoming richer - and therefore more desirable to visit. Tourism in the Maldives and Sri Lanka, for example, could increase by 600 per cent in the 30 years from 1995 to 2025 due to economic and population growth alone.
Tourism to the Maldives will increase by 600 per cent? The average elevation of the Maldvies is only 1.8 metres. Global Warming could well send the Maldives, and its tourism industry, under.

Junk science, and I bet it wasn't cheap.

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